CS2 knife trade up

Here is an illustrative 12-outcome contract, not a live quote: five inputs cost €20 each, so the ticket is €100. Eight equally likely outcomes would sell for €80 net of fees, and four for €140.

The expected return is (8 × €80 + 4 × €140) / 12 = €100. Even though that average matches the ticket, 8 of 12 outcomes lose €20: a 66.7% chance of a loss. The other four gain €40. One contract returns one outcome, not the average.

Use your exact floats and current prices in the calculator above. If you want a particular knife, compare the cost of buying a knife directly.

Every input carries one fifth of the odds and hands it to the case it drops from. Five inputs from one case put the whole contract on that case's pool, and each knife or glove in the pool is drawn at even odds: a pool of twelve is a 1 in 12 shot at any one of them. Mix cases and the odds split by count: three inputs from one case and two from another is 60/40 between the two pools. A Covert that drops from two cases splits its fifth between them.

StatTrak changes the pool, not the rule. Five StatTrak Coverts draw from the case's knives only, because gloves have no StatTrak version. Five regular Coverts draw from knives and gloves together. You cannot mix StatTrak and regular inputs in one contract. If you want the ordinary ten skin contract explained the same way, rarity ladder and all, that is the trade up guide.

The knife's float is not the average of your five floats. The game normalises each input to its own float range first (a 0.15 on a skin that runs 0 to 1 is not the same as a 0.15 on one that runs 0.10 to 0.70), averages those normalised values, and maps the average into the knife's own range. So five inputs that sit low in their own ranges land a low knife, whatever their raw numbers say. The float and wear guide has the ranges; set your exact floats in the calculator to see the wear you would get. Doppler and Gamma Doppler outcomes also carry a phase the contract does not let you pick; the Doppler phase table shows what each phase is worth.

A knife trade-up is a one-way bet on a case's pool. The ticket is the cheapest way into that pool today, and the range next to it is what the pool's items list for at any wear. Most pools hold items that list below the ticket as well as above it, which is why this page shows a range and not a promise. Before you roll, put the ticket next to the cheapest knives on the market: a lot of tickets cost more than simply buying the knife you wanted. Price the exact contract before you buy anything: the calculator values every outcome net of fees and only shows a number when every leg has a real price.

Working the other way round, with one particular knife in mind? The reverse trade-up calculator starts from the item: every case that can produce it, the pool it competes with, and the five cheapest Coverts that feed the contract.

Own some Coverts already? Sign in with Steam and the desk builds the contract from what you hold, with each copy's real float.